Toespraak minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius bij Atlantic Assembly: Navigating Uncertainty
Deze toespraak is alleen beschikbaar in het Engels.
Good afternoon. It’s good to be here among young people who are so well versed in geopolitical issues; who don’t just scroll past world events, but actually try to understand them.
I would like to start by congratulating you on your 20th anniversary. Over the past 2 decades, you have been a gateway for multiple generations to engage with security, defence and our trans-Atlantic bond. I think that I can safely say that it’s been a stormy 2 decades. You did not grow up in a stable world. You grew up in a world of generational shocks.
9/11 – the first and only time that NATO invoked article 5. European allies rose to the occasion: a total of 29,000 Dutch service members served in Afghanistan over a period of almost 20 years. And then there was the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, MH17, our first close and almost personal encounter with Putin’s cruelty. All 298 people on board were lost.196 of them were Dutch. And in 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And each time, we told ourselves: this changes everything. And each time we quietly hoped that things would return to the normal that we had known. But obviously; they didn’t. And what is your generation facing today? The war in Ukraine has entered its fifth year. The Netherlands supported Ukraine’s existential struggle from the very beginning and will continue to do so.
Ukraine is our first line of defence against Russian aggression; and the Ukrainians are teaching us in real time how to fight against this kind of aggression. Flight MH17 was our first taste of Putin’s utter disregard for human life and chances are, it will not be the last. We are preparing for the next encounter.
Last Thursday, President Zelensky was here in The Netherlands, in Middelburg. He received the Four Freedoms Award - on behalf of the entire Ukrainian people. His presence at the ceremony shows that Ukraine has not been broken. And it shows that the values behind those Four Freedoms are not abstract. They are being defended right now, as we speak, on Ukrainian soil, at an enormous cost.
But we also know that Russia is not the only existential threat to our peace and freedom. Geopolitical unrest, conflict and war can become personal for us at any moment.
The attack by Hamas on Israel in 2023 has led to widespread violence in the Middle East. The nuclear threat posed by Iran led to strong responses from the US: Operation Midnight Hammer last year and, more recently, Operation Epic Fury. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked since February 28. Twenty percent of the world's oil and gas used to pass through it. That is now largely gone. Energy prices are rising. Supply chains are disrupted. And this conflict can become personal for every European, at any moment. In fact, we already feel the consequences.
Our goal is clear: get the strait open, get ships through safely. Together with the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, we have signalled that we stand ready to contribute to freedom of navigation. What that looks like in practice depends on what comes next. But we are planning. We are preparing. And we will be ready. Let me be very clear: this is not a temporary phase. This is the new normal.
Yes, it might sound grim. But I see hope: I see a generation that really understands what’s at stake. A generation that won’t be content to merely witness history. You are a generation that will write history. Because the new world order is being formed today – and our future leaders are right now in this room.
This is Europe’s moment. A stronger Europe makes a stronger NATO. And a stronger NATO keeps us safe. A stronger Europe means a Europe that no longer hesitates, but leads. And your generation will help shape what comes next.
Because I strongly believe that a full awareness and understanding of the threats we are facing… will help us navigate uncertainty. Just look at the countries that are in the top 3 of the happiest countries in the world: Finland, Iceland and Denmark. These are all countries that are facing more direct existential threats than the Netherlands. Finland shares a border of over 1,300 kilometres with Russia and has clashed with its neighbour. Finland has a history shaped by conflict. And yet... it is the happiest country in the world. How come? Because the Fins do not confuse comfort with security.
They are known for the concept of ‘sisu’. strength and resilience in near impossible situations. And they act on that concept. 1 in 3 adults is a reservist in Finland’s armed forces. Their entrepreneurs take resilience courses. Their president Alexander Stubb took part in a speed march with young conscripts when he was 57 years old.
I have to admit: when I read that, my first thought was: that sounds like a perfectly good Saturday. Such as this one.
But it’s a serious point. We could use some sisu in the Netherlands. Our 80 years of peace gave us a false sense of security. The ‘Long Peace’ made us think that geopolitical changes wouldn’t really affect us. We hoped for – or, we expected – more peace, more luck.
But our enemies don’t work on our timeline. We need to be prepared for their worst intentions. We need to get comfortable with uncertainty. And we need to build a culture of readiness throughout society. Because security is everyone’s job now. We need to be aware, prepared and resilient.
It’s not too late to build that culture. We have awoken from our geopolitical slumber. We are done with division. Done with being naïve. Now is the time to act.
I’ve learned a lot from my visits to our troops, my visits to Ukraine and meetings with my counterparts. I would now like to share a number of takeaways with you. If we want to navigate uncertainty, we need: 1) stronger armed forces, 2) a clear awareness of threats, 3) stronger alliances, and 4) the ability to adapt — fast.
Let me start with our armed forces. Because in all of the geopolitical shifts I’ve mentioned – nine eleven, MH17, the invasion of Ukraine – there was one group of people who were always willing to act quickly, to stand strong when we all felt vulnerable and to go into harm’s way: our woman and men in uniform.
If we want to navigate uncertainty, we need to give the people who are always there for us what they need to protect us. The Netherlands can only actively defend the values that we hold dear by deploying soft power and credible hard power.
We need truly scalable armed forces. With a core of professional service members in place, we need a reserve that makes it possible for the armed forces to rapidly increase, when necessary, to grow to at least 100,000 women and men by 2030 - and continue to grow from there. I’m pleased to hear that a number of Defensity College students are with us here today – you are part of our deterrence!
But our deterrence doesn’t just rest on the shoulders of our women and men in uniform. Our entrepreneurs need to be just as connected to our collective resilience as our troops are.
We need to strengthen European cooperation – and we don’t need European uniforms to do so. The coalition agreement drawn up by the Dutch government states that we want to buy and produce 40% of our defence materiel together with European partners. And that we’re aiming to purchase 50% of our defence materiel from Dutch and European enterprises.
Furthermore, we have to do whatever is necessary to scale up our defence industry: shorten our innovation cycles, remove barriers to military mobility, and create a military Schengen Area. Our troops are already training, exercising and operating with their international sisters and brothers in arms in Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Germany, the Caribbean, the Arctic region, the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea – and I could go on and on. It’s up to me and my counterparts to take the necessary steps in Brussels and The Hague so that our troops can do their jobs more easily, quickly and safely.
Second, we need a clear awareness of possible threats. Because if you fail to see them coming… you’re already one step behind. Everything around us either is or can become a strategic playing field.
For example, the North Sea, where we like to go windsurfing and walk our dog along its shore, is also an area where Russian ships and submarines like to linger: to see how quickly we detect them, to collect data about our internet cables and wind farms. The stars in the night sky that we marvel at are part of another strategic playing field: the space domain, where satellites gather data that is essential to warfighting.
And what about the Arctic? Amsterdam is closer to the Arctic than to Barcelona. We need to be aware of threats that are present in these areas and in the various domains – and be prepared to counter them.
Third, we need to keep our allies close and find new partners to achieve our aims. I just mentioned Finland as a forerunner in the area of readiness and resilience. But even Finland knows that it can’t go alone; it joined the EU in 1995 and NATO in 2023.
Our security also depends heavily on alliances. Even when they’re undergoing change. NATO has always been flexible in order to overcome all of the challenges it has faced over the years. And there were many. Think of the Suez Crisis of ‘56… France withdrawing from NATO’s integrated military command in 1966… Or the redefining of NATO’s purpose after the collapse of the USSR. With the North Atlantic Treaty as our bedrock, we have been able to weather every storm.
And let’s be honest: for years, we were not a reliable ally to the US in terms of spending. Every US president of this century asked us to step up to the plate and meet the NATO defence spending target. We’re finally changing our ways and are doing so. Because the US is no longer our comfortable armchair. We can no longer outsource our security to the US.
The Netherlands has increased its spending on security and we will continue to do so in the future by moving towards the 5% that we agreed on during the 2025 NATO summit, here in The Hague. Last year, with 2.59% of GDP spent on defence, we had already surpassed the former NATO target.
Many other European allies are also stepping up. We’re realizing that we don’t have to be and need to be modest about our strengths. The European Union is an economic powerhouse. The EU’s combined GDP is 5 times larger than that of Russia. If we include the UK, Norway and Ukraine, our population is 4 times greater. Together, we have spent more on financial, military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine than the United States has. And combined, European NATO countries have hundreds of thousands more troops than Russia.
Now it’s about using our strengths to bolster our deterrence. The Netherlands is stepping up its cooperation with European partners on multiple fronts. Just last month, France reached out to the Netherlands to discuss nuclear and conventional deterrence. The Dutch government believes in the necessity of strengthening European deterrence, conventional as well nuclear. We are therefore engaging in a strategic dialogue with France and other European nations about ways to strengthen European nuclear deterrence.
But let me be clear, these efforts are in addition to, not instead of, US extended deterrence. Strengthening both is needed to ensure security in Europe, and our current dialogue with France shows that we are serious about taking responsibility for European security.
And I think that these initiatives show the US in no uncertain terms that Europe is a reliable and strong ally. And that strong alliances are built on contribution, not on uneven dependency
I also want to mention something that happened just days ago. We’ve all seen it on television. Our king and queen visited President Trump at the White House. Prime Minister Jetten joined them for dinner. Was the timing uncomfortable? Yes. Was it valuable? Absolutely. Opinions may differ, but we need to maintain contact. I’m convinced that by doing so, we will find a way forward.
That's what strong alliances look like. We are able to change course quickly… because, in just a short time, everything can change again. Sometimes, we need to be able to change course literally – as our frigate Evertsen recently did on the request of our French partners. But it’s also about being able to change courses when it comes to industry and innovation. So that we can deliver modern materiel and strategic enablers.
It’s about actively challenging industry to develop new capabilities, such as in the field of drones, as we mentioned before. And it’s about projects such as the Photonic Chip Pilot Line in Eindhoven, where we are developing next-generation technology for secure communication and sensing. These chips use photons, particles of light, instead of electricity, making systems faster, more energy efficient and much harder to disrupt.
We are also building new capabilities in strategic domains such as the space domain. The space domain is an essential enabler for our armed forces and our modern way of life. We use space capabilities in our daily life when we navigate to the nearest supermarket, when we make calls on our smartphones, when we check whether it’s going to rain and when we transfer money for a birthday gift. Satellites guide navigation, enable communication, provide input for targeting and support disaster response.
Increasingly, satellites also determine security outcomes on the ground. Drones rely on input from space. In Ukraine, battlefield dynamics shifted when Starlink connectivity was restricted for Russian forces, enabling Ukrainian units to regain ground.
Given these developments, it is clear that European countries, ours included, need to take a giant leap in the space domain. Enhanced capabilities in the space domain would increase Europe’s strategic autonomy, as it would be taking more responsibility for critical capabilities. With that in mind, two of our commanders visited US Space Command last month, to learn from our ally’s space capabilities. These initiatives strengthen Europe’s ability to see, communicate and act independently.
This is also important to taking more responsibility for cooperation in military intelligence. We need to establish ‘European Eyes’, a European verse of the ‘Five Eyes’ alliance.
These are a few examples of how I’m working with colleagues in Brussels and The Hague, and with entrepreneurs from Born to Delft, to make sure that our military has what is needs. Whether they’re deployed to Lithuania, Poland, Norway or the coast of Cyprus.
Again, I want to stress that if we can adapt, we can deter. And that if we’re able to adapt quickly, we will have the upper hand. In today’s world, speed is power; and adaptability is security. In a few years – or even months, weeks, mere days – everything may change again. We must be able to change course when needed.
Ukrainian sources tell us that the number of casualties caused by drones has jumped from around 20% in 2022 up to around 90% last year…. It’s a clear indicator that mastering the drone domain is crucial to our deterrence and warfighting. This month, the Royal Netherlands Army started its transformation by establishing its first drone and counter-drone units within its combat brigades. I’m proud of the Army’s efforts to establish and incorporate these units.
But in a few years’ time, there may be a new innovation that’s used widely in the military domain. If that proves to be the case, I’m confident that our armed forces will quickly embrace it.
So, in 23 years’ time, NATO will celebrate its 100th anniversary. The Young Atlanticists will be 43 years old – still in your forties, so extremely young! Your successors will be sitting in a hall like this, and they will look back on the actions we took today.
I believe that we can make them proud. That we can say that we did the right thing. That we delivered on a stronger Europe in a unified NATO. That we contributed to a new world order. We hoped for the best while always preparing for the worst.
I believe that we will have shown that we can navigate uncertainty by setting our compass to both interests and values; by keeping our allies close and finding new partners to achieve our aims; and by making sure that we are able to change course quickly because – on any given day – everything may change again.
Thank you.